Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,919
2 New Jersey 19,980
3 Louisiana 17,194
4 Arizona 17,024
5 Rhode Island 16,507
6 Massachusetts 16,224
7 District of Columbia 15,453
8 Connecticut 13,325
9 Delaware 13,225
10 Florida 13,149
11 Illinois 12,333
12 Mississippi 12,324
13 Maryland 12,260
14 Alabama 11,328
15 South Carolina 11,297
16 Iowa 11,293
17 Nebraska 11,085
18 Georgia 10,542
19 Arkansas 9,589
20 Utah 9,445
21 Texas 9,439
22 Tennessee 9,315
23 Nevada 9,284
24 California 8,508
25 South Dakota 8,504
26 Virginia 8,393
27 North Carolina 8,366
28 Indiana 7,921
29 Pennsylvania 7,840
30 Michigan 7,745
31 Minnesota 7,590
32 New Mexico 7,292
33 Wisconsin 6,973
34 Kansas 6,955
35 Colorado 6,477
36 Idaho 6,452
37 North Dakota 5,834
38 Ohio 5,719
39 Washington 5,717
40 Oklahoma 5,242
41 Missouri 4,852
42 Kentucky 4,505
43 New Hampshire 4,462
44 Wyoming 3,288
45 Puerto Rico 3,134
46 Oregon 2,948
47 Maine 2,646
48 Alaska 2,519
49 West Virginia 2,406
50 Vermont 2,084
51 Montana 1,785
52 Hawaii 863

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Florida 594
2 Louisiana 372
3 South Carolina 372
4 Alabama 342
5 Arizona 319
6 Nevada 285
7 Texas 273
8 Idaho 271
9 Tennessee 263
10 Georgia 261
11 Arkansas 235
12 Mississippi 230
13 California 208
14 Utah 190
15 North Carolina 188
16 Kansas 167
17 Iowa 147
18 Oklahoma 139
19 North Dakota 125
20 Wisconsin 125
21 Alaska 120
22 Minnesota 118
23 New Mexico 117
24 Ohio 113
25 Washington 107
26 Nebraska 105
27 Virginia 105
28 Montana 98
29 Missouri 93
30 Puerto Rico 91
31 Maryland 89
32 Indiana 87
33 Kentucky 78
34 Delaware 77
35 Oregon 77
36 District of Columbia 76
37 Illinois 75
38 Wyoming 65
39 Colorado 63
40 West Virginia 61
41 Rhode Island 55
42 Michigan 49
43 Pennsylvania 46
44 South Dakota 46
45 Massachusetts 34
46 New Jersey 33
47 New York 33
48 Connecticut 20
49 Hawaii 19
50 New Hampshire 18
51 Maine 14
52 Vermont 12

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,751
2 New York 1,648
3 Connecticut 1,225
4 Massachusetts 1,208
5 Rhode Island 928
6 District of Columbia 804
7 Louisiana 736
8 Michigan 633
9 Illinois 583
10 Maryland 549
11 Pennsylvania 543
12 Delaware 530
13 Mississippi 420
14 Indiana 410
15 Arizona 309
16 Colorado 300
17 New Hampshire 287
18 Georgia 279
19 Minnesota 273
20 Ohio 262
21 New Mexico 261
22 Iowa 239
23 Virginia 230
24 Alabama 229
25 Florida 199
26 Nevada 193
27 South Carolina 188
28 Washington 188
29 Missouri 183
30 California 179
31 Nebraska 154
32 North Carolina 147
33 Kentucky 146
34 Wisconsin 142
35 South Dakota 123
36 North Dakota 119
37 Texas 114
38 Tennessee 108
39 Arkansas 107
40 Oklahoma 107
41 Kansas 103
42 Vermont 89
43 Maine 84
44 Utah 67
45 Idaho 57
46 Oregon 56
47 West Virginia 54
48 Puerto Rico 52
49 Wyoming 36
50 Montana 29
51 Alaska 20
52 Hawaii 14

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Arizona 7
2 Louisiana 3
3 Mississippi 3
4 New Jersey 3
5 Connecticut 2
6 Florida 2
7 Rhode Island 2
8 South Carolina 2
9 Texas 2
10 Alabama 1
11 Arkansas 1
12 California 1
13 Georgia 1
14 Illinois 1
15 Maryland 1
16 Massachusetts 1
17 Michigan 1
18 Missouri 1
19 Montana 1
20 Nevada 1
21 New Mexico 1
22 New York 1
23 North Carolina 1
24 Tennessee 1
25 Alaska 0
26 Colorado 0
27 Delaware 0
28 District of Columbia 0
29 Hawaii 0
30 Idaho 0
31 Indiana 0
32 Iowa 0
33 Kansas 0
34 Kentucky 0
35 Maine 0
36 Minnesota 0
37 Nebraska 0
38 New Hampshire 0
39 North Dakota 0
40 Ohio 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Oregon 0
43 Pennsylvania 0
44 Puerto Rico 0
45 South Dakota 0
46 Utah 0
47 Vermont 0
48 Virginia 0
49 Washington 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 133,818 1 99
Lake Tennessee 99,202 2 99
Lee Arkansas 93,485 3 99
Dakota Nebraska 90,832 4 99
Buena Vista Iowa 88,583 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 21,180 136 95
Richland South Carolina 12,014 437 86
Orange California 7,998 784 75
York South Carolina 6,936 915 70
Pierce Washington 4,016 1513 51

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,902 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,282 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,806 5 99
Richland South Carolina 238 666 78
Davidson Tennessee 210 731 76
Orange California 133 999 68
Pierce Washington 125 1029 67
York South Carolina 46 1638 47

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons